Decarbonisation and the next maritime skills gap
New fuels and ship systems will require retraining on a scale the industry has rarely attempted. Training capacity, not technology, may be the constraint.
Shipping’s transition to lower-carbon fuels is usually discussed as a question of engines, fuels and infrastructure. It is equally a question of people. A study for the Maritime Just Transition Task Force, led by DNV and published in 2022, estimated that up to 800,000 seafarers may need additional training by the mid-2030s to handle alternative fuels and new ship systems safely.
Why the numbers matter
That figure should be read alongside the size of the workforce. BIMCO and the International Chamber of Shipping estimate that 2.57 million seafarers serve on the world’s merchant fleet in 2026. Retraining on the scale the task force describes would touch a very large share of it, in a period when the same report finds a shortage of certified officers.
Standards will have to move with the technology
Seafarer competence is governed internationally by the IMO’s STCW Convention, adopted in 1978 and substantially updated by the 2010 Manila amendments. Fuels such as ammonia, methanol and hydrogen bring handling, toxicity and fire risks that differ from conventional fuel oil, and training standards, courses and assessment capacity will need to reflect them.
Implications for naval and maritime workforce planners
- Training capacity — simulators, qualified instructors and practical facilities — is likely to be a bottleneck before technology is.
- Engineering and electro-technical streams will carry most of the retraining load and are already the hardest to recruit.
- Navies adopting new propulsion or power systems will compete with commercial operators for the same trained people.
- Programmes that combine recognised certification with career pathways will be better placed to recruit and retain.
The practical conclusion is that maritime skills planning needs to start well ahead of fleet change. Workforce plans that assume trained people will simply be available when new ships arrive are likely to be disappointed.
Sources
- Maritime Just Transition Task Force / DNV (via UN Global Compact), Seafarer training and skills for decarbonized shipping, 2022. unglobalcompact.org
- BIMCO / International Chamber of Shipping, Seafarer Workforce Report 2026 — press release, 25 June 2026. bimco.org
- International Maritime Organization, International Convention on Standards of Training, Certification and Watchkeeping for Seafarers (STCW), 1978, as amended. imo.org
This is an research published by NavyExporter for general information. It is not a company announcement and does not describe any NavyExporter client, programme or partnership.